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PRMIA 8007 Exam Syllabus Topics:

SectionObjectives
Simulation and Numerical Methods- Monte Carlo simulation
  • 1. Risk distribution simulation
    • 2. Random number generation
      Stochastic Processes and Time Series- Time series analysis
      • 1. AR, MA, and ARMA models
        • 2. Autocorrelation and stationarity
          - Stochastic processes basics
          • 1. Brownian motion (introductory level)
            • 2. Markov processes
              Probability and Statistics Foundations- Random variables and probability distributions
              • 1. Expectation, variance, and moments
                • 2. Discrete and continuous distributions
                  - Statistical inference
                  • 1. Confidence intervals and hypothesis testing
                    • 2. Estimation theory
                      Risk Measurement Techniques- Value at Risk (VaR)
                      • 1. Parametric and non-parametric VaR
                        • 2. Historical simulation approach
                          - Volatility and correlation
                          • 1. Correlation estimation techniques
                            • 2. Variance-covariance methods

                              PRMIA Exam II: Mathematical Foundations of Risk Measurement - 2015 Edition Sample Questions:

                              1. In a multiple linear regression, the significance of R2 can be tested using which distribution?

                              A) Student's t distribution
                              B) Normal distribution
                              C) Binomial distribution
                              D) F-distribution


                              2. For the function f(x) =3x-x3 which of the following is true?

                              A) None of these
                              B) x = 2 is a maximum
                              C) x = -3 is a maximum
                              D) x = 0 is a minimum


                              3. In a portfolio there are 7 bonds: 2 AAA Corporate bonds, 2 AAA Agency bonds, 1 AA Corporate and 2 AA Agency bonds. By an unexplained characteristic the probability of any specific AAA bond outperforming the others is twice the probability of any specific AA bond outperforming the others. What is the probability that an AA bond or a Corporate bond outperforms all of the others?

                              A) None of these
                              B) 8/11
                              C) 6/11
                              D) 5/7


                              4. Kurtosis(X) is defined as the fourth centred moment of X, divided by the square of the variance of X.
                              Assuming X is a normally distributed variable, what is Kurtosis(X)?

                              A) 0
                              B) 3
                              C) 2
                              D) 1


                              5. You intend to invest $100 000 for five years. Four different interest payment options are available. Choose the interest option that yields the highest return over the five year period.

                              A) a continuously-compounded rate of 4%
                              B) an annually compounded rate of 4.15%
                              C) a lump-sum payment of $22 500 on maturity (in five years)
                              D) a quarterly-compounded rate of 4.1%


                              Solutions:

                              Question # 1
                              Answer: D
                              Question # 2
                              Answer: A
                              Question # 3
                              Answer: A
                              Question # 4
                              Answer: B
                              Question # 5
                              Answer: D

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